The survey wars has begun

Pulse Asia, in a survey that made headlines today (see Today and the Manila Times), put up different scenarios pitting President Arroyo against different sets of presidential contenders. The field interviews for the survey were conducted from 04 to 17 November 2003.The survey shows that 2004 would be kinder to the president the more candidates contest the presidential elections. In fact in an eight-way race, the president is expected to get 24% of the votes, with De Castro, Roco and FPJ trailing quite closely (with 21%, 20% and 19% of the potential votes respectively).

The differences in the ratings in the different scenarios though are all negligible. The Pulse Asia survey has a plus or minus 3% margin of error at the 95% confidence level. The minute differences of 1%-3% therefore could all be attributable to error in the surveys.

What can be gleaned from the surveys with certainty, as Pulse Asia Director Felipe Miranda said, is that none of the candidates has a sure track to the presidency. May 2004 seems to be pretty much an open season. What personally struck me though is that President Arroyo is not so lame after all, as some people are wont to believe and expect. I, for one, expected her to be somewhere in the bottom, and yet the survey shows her hovering near the top and, given luck, potentially winning the presidential contest.

As far as I am concerned, the most important thing the survey showed is not who is the potential winner but that President Arroyo's ambition for re-election is not that ill-founded after all. What remains to be seen now is how FPJ ratchets up his ratings in the coming surveys and, if Kabayan Noli decides to run for president, how the two of them will divide the masa vote.

With FPJ now running, the Pulse Asia outfit may be seen as the more "objective" polling outfit. FPJ, I have heard, is a cousin of SWS Director Mahar Mangahas.